P_Marlowe, on 2014-May-13, 03:24, said:
Pass.
Game is not a sure think, ..., and if partner has 15+, you will collect
at least 500, so your odds of getting 620 need to be quite good.
I am not letting them play 2m, in this case I will bid 4S.
With kind regards
Marlowe
There is no guarantee of collecting a decent penalty from 1Nx or of making 4
♠, particularly as partner is not going to find the right lead against 1N, you only have an 8 count, so there is the possibility of dummy having 4 or 5 points which could be embarrassing to partner, particularly if he leads from a not great 4 card suit in a balanced hand.
One agreement that we find useful here is that we will never sit 2m undoubled once we've doubled 1N.
That said, I think bidding is probably right, Axxx, Ax, xxxx, AKx is not implausible, and is 800 out of 1N but makes 6
♠ for example. I think a lot of the time it's close to a wash as it will be 500/620. Playing with a random it's not easy, I'd love to have 4
♦ available as a sort of longer spades and 4 hearts type bid here, my worry is that I bid some number of spades and catch partner with x, AQJxx, KQxx, Axx or similar. 4
♠ doesn't make but 4
♥ does, and not clear we can get there.