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Pass penalty X of 1NT or go for the vul game?

#1 User is offline   diana_eva 

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Posted 2014-May-13, 02:48



Team match on BBO, pretty random. Unknown partner but seems decent enough. IMPs, X is penalty (no detailed agreements on what kind of hands it would include). East's pass not alerted as anything, and your EW are a random partnership as well.

Now what? Pass or bid?

#2 User is offline   P_Marlowe 

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Posted 2014-May-13, 03:24

Pass.

Game is not a sure think, ..., and if partner has 15+, you will collect
at least 500, so your odds of getting 620 need to be quite good.

I am not letting them play 2m, in this case I will bid 4S.

With kind regards
Marlowe
With kind regards
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#3 User is offline   MrAce 

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Posted 2014-May-13, 04:19

Game
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#4 User is offline   the hog 

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Posted 2014-May-13, 05:11

Partner makes a penalty x and I hold this hand? I pass of course.
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#5 User is offline   whereagles 

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Posted 2014-May-13, 05:20

Pull to 3. It's not likely LHO is going to sit this, nor is it a certainty we're going to profit from the set.
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#6 User is offline   ArtK78 

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Posted 2014-May-13, 06:08

It could certainly be right to pass. You might not have a game (or even a good spade fit) and 1NTx could be the best spot for you. But it is not out of the question for partner to have a balanced 16 count and the opps have 7 (or more) tricks based on a lot of minor suit cards. Or beating 1NTx may depend on partner leading a spade, and that is certainly not likely.

I bid 3. Partner should continue on to game unless he has a totally unsuitable hand.
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#7 User is offline   the hog 

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Posted 2014-May-13, 06:19

View PostArtK78, on 2014-May-13, 06:08, said:

It could certainly be right to pass. You might not have a game (or even a good spade fit) and 1NTx could be the best spot for you. But it is not out of the question for partner to have a balanced 16 count and the opps have 7 (or more) tricks based on a lot of minor suit cards. Or beating 1NTx may depend on partner leading a spade, and that is certainly not likely.

I bid 3. Partner should continue on to game unless he has a totally unsuitable hand.



It is out of the question for pd to hold a random bal 16 count. Oh wait, this is a Bbo pickup. Anything is possible. I still pass.
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#8 User is offline   hrothgar 

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Posted 2014-May-13, 06:22

I pass.

Wish I could cough for a spade lead, but such are there perils of online bridge.
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#9 User is offline   helene_t 

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Posted 2014-May-13, 06:25

View Posthrothgar, on 2014-May-13, 06:22, said:

I pass.

Wish I could cough for a spade lead, but such are there perils of online bridge.

Ant590 had a nice suggestion for this years BBO April Fool story: a cough button in the next version of the web interface :)
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#10 User is online   Cyberyeti 

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Posted 2014-May-13, 06:37

View PostP_Marlowe, on 2014-May-13, 03:24, said:

Pass.

Game is not a sure think, ..., and if partner has 15+, you will collect
at least 500, so your odds of getting 620 need to be quite good.

I am not letting them play 2m, in this case I will bid 4S.

With kind regards
Marlowe


There is no guarantee of collecting a decent penalty from 1Nx or of making 4, particularly as partner is not going to find the right lead against 1N, you only have an 8 count, so there is the possibility of dummy having 4 or 5 points which could be embarrassing to partner, particularly if he leads from a not great 4 card suit in a balanced hand.

One agreement that we find useful here is that we will never sit 2m undoubled once we've doubled 1N.

That said, I think bidding is probably right, Axxx, Ax, xxxx, AKx is not implausible, and is 800 out of 1N but makes 6 for example. I think a lot of the time it's close to a wash as it will be 500/620. Playing with a random it's not easy, I'd love to have 4 available as a sort of longer spades and 4 hearts type bid here, my worry is that I bid some number of spades and catch partner with x, AQJxx, KQxx, Axx or similar. 4 doesn't make but 4 does, and not clear we can get there.
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#11 User is offline   Trinidad 

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Posted 2014-May-13, 06:38

View Postwhereagles, on 2014-May-13, 05:20, said:

Pull to 3. It's not likely LHO is going to sit this, nor is it a certainty we're going to profit from the set.

So, you are going to run away from a possible 1100, just becauses the opponent might run to, say, 2?

If 3 is the right bid, why don't we make it after LHO ran to 2, instead of doing the running for him? If LHO runs, we do get another chance.

Rik
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#12 User is offline   GBinUS 

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Posted 2014-May-13, 06:49

General rule: at this vulnerability, take the likely game, 620 vs maybe 500, maybe more. At equal or favorable vul., I will defend and go for the big number.

BTW.. I am bidding 4S or pass. 3S is NOT an option.
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#13 User is offline   kenberg 

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Posted 2014-May-13, 06:56

I think the on thing that I would not do is to bid 3. Assuming that all bids are honest, I know that partner has a (at least close to) minimum point count. Bidding 3 wouold not, to my mind, ask partner whether he fits spades. It's closer to saying that spades are trump. I don't really care about partner's spades but I need him to have a little extra. He won't have any extra. He will probably pass, even if he does hold the Jack of spade.

So I am not bidding 3. I think I go with 4 . Yes this could be wrong, but I think that's my choice. If I double a strong NT on a 15 or 16 count I have a decent suit that can be led w/o blowing a trick. I suppose partner will be leading something like the King of diamonds. He certainly is not going to lead a spade. I am far from certain that I will ever be scoring my spades, and if I am not then I don't think we are getting 800.

On hands such as this, no one knows what is going to work out best and, absent some agreements that no one I know has, there is no way to communicate well. So one person has to take the bull by the horns and do as s/he thinks best. I bid 4. And if instead I am the doubler and partner chooses wrong I either shut up or express my sympathy for a tough choice.
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#14 User is offline   mikeh 

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Posted 2014-May-13, 07:43

View PostCyberyeti, on 2014-May-13, 06:37, said:

There is no guarantee of collecting a decent penalty from 1Nx or of making 4, particularly as partner is not going to find the right lead against 1N, you only have an 8 count, so there is the possibility of dummy having 4 or 5 points which could be embarrassing to partner, particularly if he leads from a not great 4 card suit in a balanced hand.

One agreement that we find useful here is that we will never sit 2m undoubled once we've doubled 1N.

That said, I think bidding is probably right, Axxx, Ax, xxxx, AKx is not implausible, and is 800 out of 1N but makes 6 for example. I think a lot of the time it's close to a wash as it will be 500/620. Playing with a random it's not easy, I'd love to have 4 available as a sort of longer spades and 4 hearts type bid here, my worry is that I bid some number of spades and catch partner with x, AQJxx, KQxx, Axx or similar. 4 doesn't make but 4 does, and not clear we can get there.

In what universe does the deck hold enough hcp for dummy to hold 4 or 5 points?

Probably the same universe in which we can reach and make 6

I happen to think that doubling a strong 1N with a balanved 16 is bad bridge in the long run, but the evidence suggests that either partner disagrees or he has a long suit to lead, expecting to beat them with that suit, and it will be a minor, not a major.
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#15 User is online   Cyberyeti 

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Posted 2014-May-13, 08:05

View Postmikeh, on 2014-May-13, 07:43, said:

In what universe does the deck hold enough hcp for dummy to hold 4 or 5 points?

Probably the same universe in which we can reach and make 6

I happen to think that doubling a strong 1N with a balanved 16 is bad bridge in the long run, but the evidence suggests that either partner disagrees or he has a long suit to lead, expecting to beat them with that suit, and it will be a minor, not a major.


A universe where I read the 1N as 12-14.

Pass is now a lot safer, and I agree with your comments about the X on a balanced hand.

What nobody has mentioned is the real possibility that partner has doubled this with a running minor and less points than you'd expect, now 4 could be grim.
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#16 User is offline   kenberg 

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Posted 2014-May-13, 08:39

View PostCyberyeti, on 2014-May-13, 08:05, said:

What nobody has mentioned is the real possibility that partner has doubled this with a running minor and less points than you'd expect, now 4 could be grim.


Although I didn't mention it, it did occur to me. I decided to hope this wasn't so.

I once doubled a strong NT holding a running six card spade suit and an outside Ace. After +100 or +200 whichever it was (and I hope it was +200), declarer threatened to call the director because I had doubled with out the requisite 15 highs. Dummy announced in a clear voice that he wished to be left out of any such director call.

I think, especially if playing with a partner who does not know your style, that if you have a running diamond suit you should bid some number of diamonds. With my spades back in the hand I just mentioned, I had decent values plus the boss suit. With running diamonds and not all that much outside of diamonds, I would expect it to be less likely that the X would be followed by three passes, and I would expect it to be more difficult to get my suit in later. So I would just bid diamonds.

But yes, partner might think differently.
Ken
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#17 User is offline   diana_eva 

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Posted 2014-May-13, 08:51

I was the doubler and my pd had the long spade hand. She tanked for a while then bid 3, I raised to game and that was it. Turns out we had 11 tricks to cash defending 1NT. Looking at her hand, I think she had a tough decision there and I'd probably bid too in her place.

I gave the hand to GIB out of curiosity, and GIB pulled the x to 2.

Oh, and we lost 12 IMPs when the other table played 3x+3 LOL

This was the full deal:


#18 User is offline   whereagles 

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Posted 2014-May-13, 10:51

View PostTrinidad, on 2014-May-13, 06:38, said:

1. So, you are going to run away from a possible 1100, just becauses the opponent might run to, say, 2?
2. If 3 is the right bid, why don't we make it after LHO ran to 2, instead of doing the running for him? If LHO runs, we do get another chance.


1. I believe in getting 1100 on this as much as on promises by Herman van Rompuy :)

2. Well, given that I think passing is futile, I might as well describe the hand, right?
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#19 User is offline   the hog 

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Posted 2014-May-13, 18:47

View PostTrinidad, on 2014-May-13, 06:38, said:

So, you are going to run away from a possible 1100, just becauses the opponent might run to, say, 2?

If 3 is the right bid, why don't we make it after LHO ran to 2, instead of doing the running for him? If LHO runs, we do get another chance.

Rik


Exactly. Why not try for the big penalty. Pd should not have a random 15-16 count. If he does only have 15 or so, he should have a decent lead and passing the x will do no harm as he will have a lead. I expect pd to be able to switch to a S soon enough for me to collect quite a few S tricks. If he leads a H I am not unhappy either.
Bid x numbers of S after, (IF), they run to a minor.

Edit after looking at the hand - there you go, after cashing 5C and seeing my signal for a S, declarer is still going down today.<br><br>CY, where did the op say she was playing a weak NT? I would suggest that in this forum a strong NT is the norm unless otherwise is explicitly stated.<br>
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#20 User is online   Cyberyeti 

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Posted 2014-May-13, 19:13

View Postthe hog, on 2014-May-13, 18:47, said:

Exactly. Why not try for the big penalty. Pd should not have a random 15-16 count. If he does only have 15 or so, he should have a decent lead and passing the x will do no harm as he will have a lead. I expect pd to be able to switch to a S soon enough for me to collect quite a few S tricks. If he leads a H I am not unhappy either.
Bid x numbers of S after, (IF), they run to a minor.

Edit after looking at the hand - there you go, after cashing 5C and seeing my signal for a S, declarer is still going down today.<br><br>CY, where did the op say she was playing a weak NT? I would suggest that in this forum a strong NT is the norm unless otherwise is explicitly stated.<br>


I already told you I misread it, I was also reading another intervention over 1N thread where it was a weak NT and got them confused.

TBF, do nothing other than make the opposing clubs 4-2 and you're only getting 500 although game is not then guaranteed your way.
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