[shyams]

 shyams, on 2020-April-16, 14:54, said:

I fear the UK is not doing well as per published statistics.

* Number of cases are still growing at a rate of 5%-6%. This is despite a total lockdown that has lasted longer than the incubation period for the virus!
* Number of deaths (in the hospitals) is still around 750-950 per day. And as we recently discovered, the death figures do not include those dying in old age homes who were never moved to hospitals.
* The administration is already falling short of committed tests and committed PPE supplies to hospitals and care homes. It appears that a large number of nurses/doctors/care home workers are catching the infection and some of them are sadly dying.

This is tragic mismanagement by the bureaucracy.

Today's ONS publication on weekly deaths makes for shocking reading and casts the UK bureaucracy & govt. in a very bad light.

As I previously said, the daily deaths in hospitals are understated and consequently the UK Govt. still insists that total Covid deaths so far as ~21,000. However, the ONS provisional figures on weekly deaths suggests a different picture (Link here)

As per the ONS, there were 22,300 deaths in the week ended 17 Apr compared to a previous 5-year average of 10,500 deaths. The 5-year average has a steady trend of 10,500-11,000 per week whereas the 2020 numbers have been steadily climbing. The number for week 13 (week ended 27-Mar) was 11,100 (800 higher vs. 5-year trend), for week 14 was 16,400 (6,000 higher), week 15 was 18,500 (8,000 higher) and week 16 was 22,350 (11,850 higher).

Truly a tragic mismanagement by the Govt.

[pilowsky]

Words matter. In bridge forums (or fora in pre-Fowler years) the word 'disaster' is thrown about with gay abandon. It is an exaggeration used with almost comic effect. People are called incompetent and stupid all the time. In my world where really serious things happen the overuse of such words just sounds silly. In medical terms. a disaster has a very specific meaning. Here is an excellent link. The whole point of a disaster as any anaesthetics specialist will tell you is that things go wrong in seconds and you have to be thoroughly prepared to react at a moments notice. It is a 'disaster' by definition if your well-prepared for resources are nevertheless overwhelmed. The Twin Towers were designed to cope with a direct hit from the largest airliner OF THE DAY crashing into them. But planes got bigger. The White House forgot all the lessons of the influenza pandemic until they were reminded by AIDS and then Ebola. Tragically in a fit of pettiness, John Bolton (remember him) and Colleagues figured that the Pandemic preparedness unit was pointless - presumably because it was an Obama initiative - and even though they saved no money at all, they subsumed it into other parts of the civil service. What happens when you drain the swamp of experts? That's right folks, no experts.
Meanwhile, there may well have been mismanagement at the British Home Office. Parkinson's Law suggests that some waste is almost certain. There was/is certainly incompetence at the White House. In time, it may be concluded that there are better words than incompetence to apply to the actions of the occupants of Trump's White House, I couldn't possibly say. As for other jurisdictions, it is hard to say the extent to which criminal mismanagement or negligence is occurring or not. Certainly, the profit motive that seems to be present at the White House to manipulate the management of the disaster response would not seem to be present to the same degree elsewhere. COVID-19 is also still in a highly plastic and pleomorphic phase: we have not even suffered a full season of it. I suspect that now is the time to be kind and supportive. Altruistic and empathetic. The time for allocation of blame will certainly arrive, but I don't think that we are there yet.

[Cyberyeti]

 pilowsky, on 2020-April-28, 02:35, said:

Felicity, and others, I really wish you would stop making whimsical posts regarding COVID-19 without references and data. You say that "you read of a case of a woman who still tested positive after 55 days". But positive to what. If you are a medical practitioner please present your qualifications and tell us the nature of the test, it's methodology, false-positive rate, false-negative rate and predictive value positive. Do you understand what these terms mean? If not then you lack the competence to make such posts in the first place. Was it an antibody test or an RNA test. which company performed it. Was it validated? If she 'still tested' how many tests did she have and were the tests performed by the same laboratory. Was the first test accurate? What was her clinical condition? Otherwise, you are simply scaremongering. Would you comment in this way about a technical aspect to do with bridge? It is not my intention to be mean, I just think that we should stick to commentary in areas that we are expert in - water-cooler or not. When I say stupid things about bridge, Mikeh mocks me, no problem, I don't mind, I know that I am a beginner and I use it as a learning tool, lives are not at stake. This is different.

https://www.mirror.c...sitive-21919526 one example, not very specific as it's tabloid press, you can find many references to the same person in all sorts of places. I have no background in medicine but have studied university level chemistry, and the mathematics of epidemics.

[pilowsky]

 Cyberyeti, on 2020-April-28, 05:13, said:

https://www.mirror.c...sitive-21919526 one example, not very specific as it's tabloid press, you can find many references to the same person in all sorts of places. I have no background in medicine but have studied university level chemistry, and the mathematics of epidemics.

We have a saying in Australia "Is it true, or did you see it in the Murdoch Press" We have been saying this for more than a 100 years. It dates back to the First world war when Murdoch's father tried to stuff up the worlds best General -John Monash - in a fit of anti-semitic rage. Using a reference to a Murdoch paper to back up your ideas and then coupling it to your lack of qualifications in Medicine does you no credit at all. Basically read what I wrote. I was publishing on this ***** in the Lancet before you went to University. Or is 'have studied' a euphemism for 'didn't actually gain qualifications in'?

[Cyberyeti]

 pilowsky, on 2020-April-28, 05:33, said:

We have a saying in Australia "Is it true, or did you see it in the Murdoch Press" We have been saying this for more than a 100 years. It dates back to the First world war when Murdoch's father tried to stuff up the worlds best General -John Monash - in a fit of anti-semitic rage. Using a reference to a Murdoch paper to back up your ideas and then coupling it to your lack of qualifications in Medicine does you no credit at all. Basically read what I wrote. I was publishing on this ***** in the Lancet before you went to University. Or is 'have studied' a euphemism for 'didn't actually gain qualifications in'?

If you think the mirror is a Murdoch paper you have no clue about the UK, it's the left leaning opposite of the Sun which is the Murdoch paper. Also as I said you will find lots of references to that story all over press from various countries.

I studied chemistry in the mid 80s but didn't graduate, I graduated in maths much later.

[pilowsky]

Tabloid

[Cyberyeti]

 pilowsky, on 2020-April-28, 06:01, said:

Tabloid

Google her name (which is Bianca Dobroiu, sometimes spelt Biana depending on where you look) and you will find articles from all around the world about her, https://7news.com.au...gnosis-c-996498 being one of them (I don't know who owns 7 or the style of its news)

[FelicityR]

 pilowsky, on 2020-April-28, 02:35, said:

Felicity, and others, I really wish you would stop making whimsical posts regarding COVID-19 without references and data. You say that "you read of a case of a woman who still tested positive after 55 days". But positive to what. If you are a medical practitioner please present your qualifications and tell us the nature of the test, it's methodology, false-positive rate, false-negative rate and predictive value positive. Do you understand what these terms mean? If not then you lack the competence to make such posts in the first place. Was it an antibody test or an RNA test. which company performed it. Was it validated? If she 'still tested' how many tests did she have and were the tests performed by the same laboratory. Was the first test accurate? What was her clinical condition? Otherwise, you are simply scaremongering. Would you comment in this way about a technical aspect to do with bridge? It is not my intention to be mean, I just think that we should stick to commentary in areas that we are expert in - water-cooler or not. When I say stupid things about bridge, Mikeh mocks me, no problem, I don't mind, I know that I am a beginner and I use it as a learning tool, lives are not at stake. This is different.

Ok. Maybe not commentating on any posts on BBO is the way forward. Goodbye all

[shyams]

 FelicityR, on 2020-April-28, 10:04, said:

Ok. Maybe not commentating on any posts on BBO is the way forward. Goodbye all

FelicityR, I suggest you relook at your decision above and continue to comment whenever you so desire.

* What you wrote is reported in the press/media, howsoever unpalatable that press/media outlet was to some others. You merely stated things here which you thought were interesting and noteworthy.
* Nothing of what you wrote is likely to cause people to take unreasonable or rash actions in their own life. You are not the President of the USA(*)
* If I recall, when you made suggestions on this post, you used to caveat such suggestions saying something like "not formal medical advice".

Why bother responding to random rants or taking it to heart? This is The Water Cooler; you are allowed to comment to your heart's desire regardless of what others say.




PS: My apologies for including the Clown President and you in the same sentence

[Cyberyeti]

 shyams, on 2020-April-28, 12:36, said:

PS: My apologies for including the Clown President and you in the same sentence

Why ? being included in a sentence with him usually makes the other person look good

[Cyberyeti]

I do some stuff with YouGov a polling organization. One of the questions that came up today indicates something interesting (it shows you the results after you vote, obviously there's a rounding issue):


So, do you think
(A) We should be very cautious about ending lockdown too early, or
(B) We should start easing restrictions slowly, but start now, or
© We should fully end lockdown now
Results so far...
A - 73%
B - 21%
C - 7%

So atm the people voting are still happy for this to continue, I wonder how long this will continue.

[cherdano]

 pilowsky, on 2020-April-28, 02:35, said:

Felicity, and others, I really wish you would stop making whimsical posts regarding COVID-19 without references and data. You say that "you read of a case of a woman who still tested positive after 55 days". But positive to what. If you are a medical practitioner please present your qualifications and tell us the nature of the test, it's methodology, false-positive rate, false-negative rate and predictive value positive. Do you understand what these terms mean? If not then you lack the competence to make such posts in the first place. Was it an antibody test or an RNA test. which company performed it. Was it validated? If she 'still tested' how many tests did she have and were the tests performed by the same laboratory. Was the first test accurate? What was her clinical condition? Otherwise, you are simply scaremongering. Would you comment in this way about a technical aspect to do with bridge? It is not my intention to be mean, I just think that we should stick to commentary in areas that we are expert in - water-cooler or not. When I say stupid things about bridge, Mikeh mocks me, no problem, I don't mind, I know that I am a beginner and I use it as a learning tool, lives are not at stake. This is different.

Relax. This is the BBF water cooler, not the POTUS' daily coronavirus briefing. No one should be taking health or medical advice from this thread.

[johnu]

 pilowsky, on 2020-April-28, 02:35, said:

Felicity, and others, I really wish you would stop making whimsical posts regarding COVID-19 without references and data. You say that "you read of a case of a woman who still tested positive after 55 days". But positive to what. If you are a medical practitioner please present your qualifications and tell us the nature of the test, it's methodology, false-positive rate, false-negative rate and predictive value positive. Do you understand what these terms mean? If not then you lack the competence to make such posts in the first place. Was it an antibody test or an RNA test. which company performed it. Was it validated? If she 'still tested' how many tests did she have and were the tests performed by the same laboratory. Was the first test accurate? What was her clinical condition? Otherwise, you are simply scaremongering. Would you comment in this way about a technical aspect to do with bridge? It is not my intention to be mean, I just think that we should stick to commentary in areas that we are expert in - water-cooler or not. When I say stupid things about bridge, Mikeh mocks me, no problem, I don't mind, I know that I am a beginner and I use it as a learning tool, lives are not at stake. This is different.

On the internet, anybody can be an astronaut, a hall of fame sports star, a cowboy, a "Noble" prize winner, and ahem, even a medical doctor. I haven't read anything you have written in this thread that makes me more likely to believe that you are a theoretical physicist rather than a professional miniature golfer.

But, since you "claim" to be a doctor, please definitely answer the following questions.

Do recovered COVID-19 patients have immunity from future infections in humans, and if so, how long?

Does having COVID-19 antibodies give immunity from future infections in humans, and if so, how long?

What does it mean when "recovered" COVID-19 patients continue to test positive? Have they not recovered, or are multiple tests giving the wrong results? Do you have to be a medical expert to understand articles that say experts don't know why anomalous cases and studies are producing the results that they produced?

Don't bother answering because nobody knows the answer. Not "real" experts in the field, not your average doctors, not your below competent doctors. Hopefully the "experts" will figure things out sometime in the future.

[pilowsky]

Clearly, you are watching too much television and sourcing your information from tabloid newspapers and science fiction novels. If you want to get your information from people that don't know anything at all that's fine by me. btw, testing positive could simply mean that a person has antibodies to the virus but does not have active disease. But since you are an expert on immunology as well as bridge I'm sure you knew that already. perhaps you could help Jared and Ivanka advise Deborah and Tony. They seem to need some of your help. Don't bother replying - you don't seem to know anything about anything.

[johnu]

 pilowsky, on 2020-April-28, 15:25, said:

Clearly, you are watching too much television and sourcing your information from tabloid newspapers and science fiction novels. If you want to get your information from people that don't know anything at all that's fine by me. btw, testing positive could simply mean that a person has antibodies to the virus but does not have active disease. But since you are an expert on immunology as well as bridge I'm sure you knew that already. perhaps you could help Jared and Ivanka advise Deborah and Tony. They seem to need some of your help. Don't bother replying - you don't seem to know anything about anything.

Ok, so am I correct to assume that you are actually a miniature golf professional? Maybe you can give me some advice. What is the best strategy to play that hole with the windmill clown face?

[pilowsky]

The best strategy to play that hole is by putting a sock in it .

[johnu]

 pilowsky, on 2020-April-28, 15:57, said:

The best strategy to play that hole is by putting a sock in it .

OMG, I took a wild guess and actually managed to guess your actual profession.

[johnu]

 FelicityR, on 2020-April-28, 10:04, said:

Ok. Maybe not commentating on any posts on BBO is the way forward. Goodbye all

I would ignore anything that pilowsky/thepossum/[insert nom de jour] has to say. You have a lot more to offer than he does.

[sfi]

 johnu, on 2020-April-28, 17:11, said:

I would ignore anything that pilowsky/thepossum/[insert nom de jour] has to say. You have a lot more to offer than he does.

+1

[thepossum]

 pilowsky, on 2020-April-28, 18:50, said:

That's what I like about bridge players. Experts at everything. My name is Paul Pilowsky. Don't know who the possum is, although most Sydney players have a few thoughts.

I would request you take this down Pilowsky. You are a disgrace posting a comment attacking me, and continuing the two earlier attacks by johnu and sfi.This is disgusting attack. How many more of you are involved in this disgusting ad hominem and disgraceful attacks against me personally and professionally. What a disgusting group of people. Who do you think you are. I have put up with years of the most disgrarceful and disgusting attacks and behaviour on this site and on some of the table in the club. You are just the latest to display a total lack of knowledge of decent behaviour - personally and professionally. Take it down please. Do you really want to be associated with the two who attacked me and have been involved in the attacks on here for years